Arc · Planetary signal index

Ground truth for the industrial economy.

Arc indexes mills, vessels, distributors, and exchanges into a single observation layer. Every signal is timestamped, tiered, and routed through the Arc Signal Transformer before anything downstream — including MESO-1 — touches it.

Distributors indexed

1,600+

Steel plants tracked

2,000+

Vessel calls / day

~480

Port terminals

120+

Observation layers · Live coverage

Four layers of industrial state — observed continuously.

Each layer carries an independent observability budget. Together, they form the calibration substrate every Palisade model is trained against.

SAR thermal · global mill grid

Live · 6 h revisit

Facilities

2,041

Cadence Δ

+1.8%

Revisit

6 h

Signal sources

Primary feeds. Each ground-truthed at the source.

Every feed is timestamped, tiered, and passed through the Arc Signal Transformer before any model touches it. Provenance is preserved end-to-end.

Source 01

Sentinel-1 SAR

Synthetic-aperture radar imagery cycles every six hours. Mill-level thermal posture extracted on every revisit, independent of cloud cover or daylight.

Source 02

AIS vessel telemetry

Live vessel positions filtered for steel-carrying load profiles. Lane density, transit time, and dwell scored per port call.

Source 03

Exchange settlements

HRC, CRC, rebar, and regional indices stream into the calibration layer. Every model trained at Palisade is anchored to settled prices.

Source 04

Distributor graph

Inventory listings, quote responsiveness, and regional concentration mapped continuously across 1,600+ distributors.

Market scale

Steel moves at planetary scale.
Arc covers it.

Coverage before inference. Ground truth before forecast. The observability budget runs first — every model trained at Palisade reads from this substrate.

01

MT / yr

1.9B

Global crude steel produced annually

02

MT / yr

400M

Cross-border steel trade volume

03

MT / day

~1.1M

Maritime steel in transit globally

04

facilities

2,500+

Major production facilities worldwide

Painted oceanside terminal at dusk

Coverage · 120+ terminals

Every working coastline, indexed.

Arc reads vessel telemetry, terminal throughput, and inland connectivity as one continuous surface — from the Gulf to the Yangtze.

Plate 02 · Oceanside

Palisade Research · Technical Brief

Arc / v2.1 · Edition 2026.05

Arc: A Planetary Signal Index for Industrial Markets

4 observation layers 2,000+ mills 120+ terminals

Research · Maturity

Industrial-grade observation, ground-truthed against settlement.

Arc is published. Every release ships a versioned technical brief — coverage methodology, source provenance, calibration intervals, and known blind spots. Operators and counterparties read the same primary source the team does.

v2.1 · 2026.05

Current production

Distributor graph extended to 1,608 entities

v2.0 · 2026.01

Sentinel-1 SAR ingestion redesign

Mill thermal posture re-evaluated against settlements

v1.7 · 2025.10

AIS lane filtering for steel-carrying profiles

Port congestion index introduced

Outcomes

What better observation produces.

The economic value of Arc is not the data — it's what ends up in the operator's day, and how much earlier it gets there.

9 days

Earlier procurement entry vs. market average

Arc surfaces price-inflection signals before broad market confirmation.

4.1%

Annual efficiency loss in undigitized distributors

The baseline erosion Arc is designed to reverse — before models even fire.

4–6×

Margin uplift when arbitrage is executed on Arc signal

0.9% net margin becomes 4–6% when entry timing is right.

Observation is the substrate. Arc owns it.